Copper: The Metal the Electric Age Is Running Out Of
It follows copper from ore to cathode (open pit, crusher, concentrator, smelter and refinery, or the SX-EW route), explains why falling ore grades mean more rock for each tonne of metal, and shows where copper is dug and where it is refined: China holds about half of world refining capacity (IEA). It covers three mines going down within a year of each other — Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in Congo and Escondida in Chile — and why a new mine takes about 17 years to open (S&P Global).
Then the numbers: S&P Global expects demand of 42 million tonnes by 2040 and a gap of about 10 million tonnes; the IEA puts supply about 25% short of 2035 demand, down from about 30% a year earlier. Recycling, aluminium, US Section 232 tariffs and resource nationalism follow, and finally what could close the gap.
Every figure is on screen with its source and date.
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Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)
- Grasberg copper mine, Papua, Indonesia: Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Republik Indonesia, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATambang_Grasberg_Freeport.jpg
- Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah, 1942: Andreas Feininger, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABingham_Canyon_Mine_1942c.jpg
- Kennecott smelter and Bingham mine, Utah: Bruce McAllister, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AKENNECOTT_SMELTER_AND_MINE_-_THE_LARGEST_OPEN-PIT_COPPER_MINE_IN_THE_WORLD_-_NARA_-_544788.jpg
- Copper mine at Kolwezi, Congo: Rob Mieremet / Anefo, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AKopermijn_te_Kolwezi%2Cin_de_provincie_Shaba_%28Katanka%29%2C_Bestanddeelnr_926-7699.jpg
- Gecamines Lubumbashi copper smelter, DRC: Gécamines (Zairian company), Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AGecamines_Lubumbashi_copper_smelter.jpg
- Electrolytic copper refining room, Gecamines Luilu refinery, Kolwezi: Gécamines (Zairian company), Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ARoom_where_copper_is_electrolyzed_at_the_Gecamines_Luilu_refinery_near_Kolwezi.jpg
- Escondida copper mine, Atacama Desert, Chile: The image was taken by the the Expedition 22 crew., Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AEscondida_Copper_Mine%2C_Atacama_Desert%2C_Chile_2009-12-09.jpg
- Cerro Verde copper mine, Peru: NASA Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACerro_Verde_mine_Peru.jpg
- Morenci copper mine, Arizona: Unknown authorUnknown author or not provided, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACoronado_Trail_Scenic_Byway_-_Morenci_Copper_Mine_-_NARA_-_7717810.jpg
- Overhead high-voltage transmission line: Rsparks3, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AOverhead_transmission_line.jpg
- Data-centre server rack cabling: Derrick Coetzee from Berkeley, CA, USA, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ARear_of_rack_at_NERSC_data_center_-_closeup.jpg
- Coiling copper wire for an electric motor: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate Airman Ron Reeves, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AUS_Navy_040806-N-0684R-010_Electrician%27s_Mate_Fireman_Brian_Thompson_from_Fresno%2C_Calif._coils_copper_wire_for_the_inside_of_an_electric_motor.jpg
- Power transformer with cut-open windings: unknown, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATMW_50971_Transformatorschenkel_eines_Leistungstransformators_mit_aufgeschnittenen_Wicklungen.jpg
Primary sources
- Investing News Network, 'What Was the Highest Price for Copper?', updated 2026, citing CME/COMEX and LME data - LME three-month record $14,858/t on 9 Sep 2026 (from $14,708.50 on 8 Sep); COMEX record $6.89/lb on 9 Sep 2026 (from $6.87 on 8 Sep).
- Mining.com, 'Copper price holds near record as London warehouse bidding war looms', 14 August 2026 - LME warehouse stocks 204,975 tonnes after 42 days of falls; metal flows toward the US and China; Chinese smelters cutting output on tight concentrate.
- S&P Global, 'Copper in the Age of AI', press release, 8 January 2026 - 42 Mt demand by 2040, supply peak 33 Mt in 2030, gap about 10 Mt (25%), scrap 4 Mt to 10 Mt, 17-year average mine lead time, data-centre capacity about 550 GW in 2040.
- IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, executive summary - supply about 25% short of 2035 demand (about 30% in the 2025 edition); China about 50% of copper refining capacity; base metals up one third, January 2025 to April 2026.
- Freeport-McMoRan, first-quarter 2026 results, 23 April 2026, and second-quarter 2026 results, 23 July 2026 (SEC 8-K exhibits 99.1) - Grasberg Block Cave restart, about 3.1 billion pounds of 2026 sales, 65% in the second half of 2026, 80% by mid-2027, full capacity by end 2027.
- Ivanhoe Mines, Kamoa-Kakula guidance releases, 3 December 2025 and 31 March 2026 (updated independent study results) - seismic activity of 20 May 2025, 2026 guidance 380,000-420,000 t then cut to 290,000-330,000 t.
- MINING.COM, 'BHP halts operations at Escondida following fatal accident', and Reuters via Investing.com, Sep 2026 - contractor died in a front-end-loader accident, 23 September 2026; BHP suspended all operations at Escondida pending a Sernageomin investigation; no restart date given.
- Cochilco forecast, reported by Miningreporters, 19 January 2026 - Chile output 5.97 Mt (2027), 5.43 Mt (2030), 6.06 Mt (2033); falling grades.
- The White House, 'Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States', signed 2 April 2026, effective 6 April 2026 (Federal Register, published 9 Apr 2026) - 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, 25% on copper-intensive derivatives, reduced rate for copper entirely smelted and cast in the US; second proclamation, 1 June 2026, effective 8 June 2026, extends reduced rates on more derivatives through 31 December 2027.
Not regulated financial advice.