Forwards or Backwards

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High-Speed Rail: Why Britain Can't Build What Japan Did

Published · 20 min

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A Shinkansen leaves Tokyo every few minutes. Britain's HS2 has cost more than £40bn and no passenger will ride it before 2036 at the earliest. This video asks why.

First, what makes a railway high-speed: new lines built for 250 km/h or more (EU Directive 96/48/EC, 1996), curves several kilometres wide, signals shown in the cab rather than beside the track, and power from a 25,000-volt overhead wire.

Then the builders. Japan's Tokaido Shinkansen opened on 1 October 1964, nine days before the Tokyo Olympics, at almost double its 1958 estimate; JNR president Shinji Sogo and chief engineer Hideo Shima resigned in 1963. France's TGV opened Paris-Lyon from 27 September 1981, reusing the old city stations, and set the 574.8 km/h wheeled record on 3 April 2007. Spain opened Madrid-Seville on 21 April 1992 and now has more than 4,000 km, at about €17.7m a kilometre by the state engineering company Ineco's own study. China opened Beijing-Tianjin on 1 August 2008 and passed 50,000 km in December 2025.

Then HS2: HS2 Ltd in 2009, a Y-shaped plan in 2010, the go-ahead in 2012, the eastern arm cut in the Integrated Rail Plan (18 November 2021) and the Manchester leg cancelled on 4 October 2023. The Stewart review (18 June 2025) on why it cost so much. And the reset of 19 May 2026: £87.7bn to £102.7bn in 2025 prices, first trains between May 2036 and October 2039, Euston between 2040 and 2043, top speed cut from 360 to 320 km/h.

Every figure is dated and sourced. Where a source is an advocacy group or a state body describing its own work, the video says so.

Educational documentary. Not financial or investment advice.

In these topics

Tags

Chapters

  1. Two trains, one question
  2. What makes rail high-speed
  3. The bullet train, 1964
  4. France copies and improves
  5. Spain builds cheaply
  6. China's 50,000 kilometres
  7. Britain's plan
  8. The line shrinks
  9. Why it cost so much
  10. The 2026 reset
  11. Forwards or backwards?

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Sources and credits

Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)

Primary sources

  • JR Central, Annual Report 2025 (FY2024 results) - 383 trains a day, up to 12 Nozomi an hour, average delay 1.4 minutes per train including natural disasters, no passenger fatalities or injuries on board from train accidents since operations began.
  • Japan Railway & Transport Review No. 64 (October 2014), '50 Years of Tokaido Shinkansen History' - opening 1 October 1964, 210 km/h, 4 hours Tokyo-Shin-Osaka; Wikipedia, 'Tokaido Shinkansen' - 515.4 km, November 1965 speed-up; Nippon.com, 'The Shinkansen Turns 50' (1 Oct 2014) - Olympics opened 10 October 1964.
  • Trains To Beyond, 'Bullet at 60 - Timeline #2' - 1958 estimate ¥172.5bn, final ¥379bn 'almost double', Sogo and Shima resigned 1963, not invited to the opening; Wikipedia, 'Shinji Sogo' - fund diversion, resignation 1963.
  • Council Directive 96/48/EC of 23 July 1996, Annex I - definition of high-speed lines.
  • French Wikipedia, 'LGV Sud-Est' - 27 September 1981, 25 September 1983, 260 km/h, 2h40, 4,000 m minimum radius, reuse of classic lines into Paris and Lyon; Wikipedia, 'TGV' - 574.8 km/h on 3 April 2007, in-cab signalling.
  • Spanish Ministry of Transport press release, 20 May 2025 - more than 4,000 km, first in Europe, second to China, Ineco study €17.7m/km vs €45.5m/km; Global Railway Review, 8 Nov 2023 - reasons for low cost.
  • Euronews, 8 April 2026, and CTIF - Adamuz derailment and collision, 18 January 2026, 46 dead, Civil Guard: rail broke the day before.
  • Xinhua, 'China's high-speed rail mileage tops 50,000 km', 26 December 2025; Xinhua, 2 January 2025 - 48,000 km end 2024, about 60,000 km by 2030; Asia Times, 17 June 2025 - China State Railway Group liabilities 6.2 trillion yuan end 2024; Wikipedia - Beijing-Tianjin 1 August 2008, Wenzhou 23 July 2011.
  • UIC, 'High Speed Lines in the World 2023 (Summary)', updated 1 December 2024 - km in operation by country.
  • DfT, 'High Speed Rail: Investing in Britain's Future - Decisions and Next Steps', January 2012 - capacity case and quotation; Railnews, 11 March 2010 - Y network command paper.
  • legislation.gov.uk - High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Act 2017, Royal Assent 23 February 2017.
  • gov.uk, 11 Feb 2020 - PM confirms HS2; HS2 Ltd, 4 Sep 2020 - formal start of construction; DfT, Integrated Rail Plan, 18 November 2021 (quotation).
  • Rishi Sunak, speech to Conservative Party Conference, Manchester, 4 October 2023 (UKPOL transcript) - quotation.
  • James Stewart, 'Major Transport Projects Governance and Assurance Review: The HS2 Experience', DfT, 18 June 2025 - findings and quotation.
  • Sir Patrick McLoughlin, Third Reading speech, 23 March 2016 - 50,000+ pages of environmental assessment, over 1,500 petitions heard; Construction Enquirer, 8 Nov 2024 - Sheephouse Wood bat structure over £100m; HS2 Ltd - Chiltern tunnel 16 km.
  • Wikipedia and Railway Gazette - LGV Sud Europe Atlantique (Tours-Bordeaux), 302 km, €7.8bn, opened 2 July 2017; Britain Remade (after The Telegraph, 4 Oct 2023) - £396m a mile vs about £46m a mile - AN ADVOCACY GROUP, attributed on screen; DfT/PwC, 'High speed rail international benchmarking study' (2020).
  • HS2 Ltd - Mark Wild CEO from 2 December 2024; Heidi Alexander, oral statement 'Resetting the HS2 programme', 18 June 2025.
  • Heidi Alexander, oral statement 'HS2 reset', and DfT press release, both 19 May 2026 - £87.7bn-£102.7bn priced in 2025, two-thirds scope/underestimation/inefficiency and one-third inflation, May 2036-October 2039, 2040-2043, 320 km/h saving up to £2.5bn, quotations; HS2 6-monthly report to Parliament, 19 May 2026 - £44.2bn spent to end March 2026, reset to conclude in first half of 2027; Railnews, 19 May 2026.

Not regulated financial advice.