North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal: How Big Is It Now?
On 24 September 2026, North Korea's foreign minister said the country will keep its nuclear weapons "through all ages" and called that status irreversible. Four days earlier it had fired two ballistic missiles into the sea off its east coast. This video asks whether thirty years of sanctions and diplomacy ever actually slowed North Korea's nuclear programme, or whether it has simply outrun every attempt to stop it.
It follows the programme from its Soviet roots - scientists sent to train at Dubna in 1956, the Yongbyon research reactor the USSR supplied in 1965 - through the secret plutonium reprocessing that triggered the first nuclear crisis in 1993, the 1994 Agreed Framework that froze it for eight years, and its collapse in 2002-2003 when North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors and withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty for good.
Then six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017, the 2018 Singapore and 2019 Hanoi summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un that produced statements but no dismantlement, and the satellite-only picture the IAEA has worked from since inspectors left in 2009 - including the new Yongbyon enrichment building, able to house up to 28 centrifuge cascades, that the IAEA reported on 28 August 2026.
It lays out why SIPRI, South Korea's defence ministry and Donald Trump do not agree on how many warheads North Korea actually has, looks at the Hwasong-19 and the untested Hwasong-20 ICBMs, and asks what twenty years of UN sanctions resolutions have actually achieved against ship-to-ship transfers, eroded Chinese and Russian enforcement, and over $6.7 billion in North Korean state-linked cryptocurrency theft.
The verdict: not that diplomacy achieved nothing, but that nothing it achieved has lasted.
Educational documentary. Not financial or investment advice.
In these topics
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Chapters
- The 2026 flashpoint
- Soviet roots, 1956-1965
- Secret reprocessing and the first crisis, 1980s-1993
- The Agreed Framework, 1994
- Collapse and withdrawal, 2002-2003
- Six tests, six years of missiles, 2006-2017
- The Trump-Kim summits, 2018-2019
- Yongbyon and Kangson today
- How many warheads, really
- The missile arsenal
- Sanctions: did they work?
- Verdict: outrun or contained?
Sources and credits
Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)
- Choe Son Hui, North Korean Foreign Minister (then Vice Foreign Minister), meeting U.S. officials: U.S. Department of State from United States, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AChoe_Son-hui.jpg
- Yongbyon 5MWe Magnox reactor, North Korea's original plutonium-production reactor: Keith Luse, Senior Professional Staff Member, U.S. Senate, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AYongbyon_5MWe_Magnox_reactor.jpg
- Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, disabled nuclear fuel fabrication facility: W. Keith Luse, Senior Professional Staff Member, U.S. Senate, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AYongbyon%2C_disabled_nuclear_fuel_fabrication_facility.jpg
- Destruction of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site tunnels, May 2018: https://www.voanews.com/, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADestruction_of_North_Korea_Punggye-ri_Nuclear_Test_Site_v2.jpg
- Kim Jong Un, official portrait: White House, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AKim_Jong_Un_Portrait_Size.jpg
- Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump shaking hands, DPRK-USA Singapore Summit, 12 June 2018: Shealeah Craighead, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AKim_and_Trump_shaking_hands_at_the_red_carpet_during_the_DPRK%E2%80%93USA_Singapore_Summit.jpg
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un shaking hands, Hanoi Summit, 27 February 2019: Dan Scavino, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATrump_shaking_hands_with_Kim_in_Hanoi_Summit.jpg
- Korean Demilitarized Zone at Imjingak Peace Park, Paju, South Korea: U.S. Army photo by Stanley James, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AThunder_Brigade_Soldiers_embrace_history_during_iconic_tour_of_the_DMZ_%288927608%29.jpg
Primary sources
- IAEA Board of Governors report on North Korea's nuclear programme, 28 August 2026 - the new Yongbyon enrichment building able to house up to 28 centrifuge cascades, identified against June 2026 Kim Jong Un state-media photographs, and the Kangson site's 2024 annex appearing operational by early 2026. Confirmed via ExchangeMonitor, 10 September 2026, and The Diplomat, 'Where Does North Korea's Nuclear Program Stand in 2026?', September 2026. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- Korea Times, 'N. Korea's will to keep nuclear weapons through "all ages" irreversible: FM', 24 September 2026 - the Choe Son Hui KCNA statement, quoted verbatim. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- CNN / UPI / NK News, reporting the 20 September 2026 Wonsan launches - South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff and Japan's Ministry of Defense figures: first missile ~60km altitude / ~440km range, second ~70km altitude / ~590km range, both outside Japan's EEZ. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- SIPRI Yearbook 2026, World Nuclear Forces chapter - North Korea probably assembled around 60 warheads as of January 2026, with fissile material for at least 30 more. Confirmed via NK News, 'Think tank raises estimate for North Korean nuclear arsenal to 60 warheads', June 2026. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- Korea Herald, 'Defense Minister shares N. Korea nuke estimate above Trump's', 2026 - South Korea's working estimate of 80 to 120 warheads. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- Fox News / Axios / Korea JoongAng Daily, reporting Donald Trump's remarks of August 2026 - North Korea has '57 very powerful nuclear weapons'. Accessed 1 October 2026.
- Wikipedia 'Hwasong-19', corroborated against CNN, 30 October 2024 - the 31 October 2024 test: altitude about 7,687km, range about 1,001km, flight time about 86 minutes.
- Korea Times, 'N. Korea unveils new Hwasong-20 ICBM, signaling multi-warhead ambitions', 12 October 2025 - unveiled at the 10 October 2025 Workers' Party 80th-anniversary parade; wider body, different nose shape, untested as of this video.
- CSIS Beyond Parallel, 'Yongbyon Declassified' series, and the Wikipedia 'Timeline of the North Korean nuclear program' and 'Nyongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center' pages - the 1956 Dubna agreement, the 1959 Soviet-DPRK technical cooperation treaty, and the Soviet-supplied IRT-2000 research reactor operating at Yongbyon from 1965.
- Arms Control Association, 'Arms Control and Proliferation Profile: North Korea' - the 1985 NPT accession, the delayed 1992 safeguards inspections and reprocessing discrepancy, the March/June 1993 first nuclear crisis, the 21 October 1994 Agreed Framework, the October 2002-January 2003 collapse and NPT withdrawal, the six 2006-2017 nuclear tests, and the 12 June 2018 Singapore and 27-28 February 2019 Hanoi summits.
- Chainalysis, crypto crime reporting, 2025-2026 - cumulative North Korea-linked cryptocurrency theft of about $6.75 billion since 2019, including a record $2.02 billion in 2025 (driven by the ~$1.46bn Bybit theft, February 2025).
- Arms Control Association / CNN / Al Jazeera / The Diplomat / Chatham House, reporting Russia's 28 March 2024 veto (China abstaining) of the UN Panel of Experts' mandate renewal, which lapsed 30 April 2024.
Not regulated financial advice.