Forwards or Backwards

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Nuclear Fuel: The Bottleneck Behind the Comeback

Published · 15 min

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Every nuclear revival plan needs fuel that only a few countries can make. This video follows uranium from the mine to the reactor: mining and milling into yellowcake, conversion to a gas, enrichment in centrifuge cascades, and fuel fabrication. It explains the separative work unit, the measure of enrichment effort, in plain terms.

Then it asks how Russia came to dominate enrichment, from the Megatons to Megawatts deal that began in 1993 to Rosatom's place today as the largest operator, and what the American ban on Russian uranium imports changes, with waivers ending by 1 January 2028.

It explains why new small and advanced reactors need HALEU, fuel enriched to just under 20 per cent that almost nobody in the West makes at commercial scale, and looks at the Western rebuild: Urenco's expansion at Eunice in New Mexico, announced on 2 June 2026, Centrus at Piketon in Ohio, and Orano.

The verdict: forwards, but not yet fast enough. The new capacity arrives after the waivers end, and the video says plainly that the gap in between is a risk, not a measured forecast.

Figures come from the World Nuclear Association, Urenco, Centrus's filings with the US SEC and the US Department of Energy, all dated on screen.

Educational documentary. Not financial or investment advice.

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Chapters

  1. The fuel nobody talks about
  2. From mine to yellowcake
  3. Conversion to gas
  4. Inside a centrifuge cascade
  5. The separative work unit
  6. Fuel fabrication
  7. How Russia came to dominate
  8. The US ban on Russian uranium
  9. Why new reactors need HALEU
  10. The Western rebuild
  11. Can the West be in time?

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Sources and credits

Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)

Primary sources

  • Urenco USA, 'Urenco USA Plans Significant Expansion of U.S. Uranium Enrichment Capacity', 2 June 2026 - 2.1m SWU, nearly 50%, current 4.3m SWU, construction 2029, first cascades 2032, complete 2036..
  • Centrus Energy Corp, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (sec.gov) - $900.0m firm fixed price task order awarded 5 January 2026, contract 1 July 2026, one MTU of HALEU at nominal 19.75% by July 2032, options, Import Ban Act dates, waivers for 2024-2027 US deliveries, Russian Decree of 14 November 2024 extended through 31 December 2027.
  • Centrus Energy Corp, news release 'Centrus Awarded $900 Million to Expand Uranium Enrichment in Ohio', January 2026 - up to $170m options, $1.07bn total, first new capacity 2029.
  • World Nuclear Association, 'Uranium Enrichment', updated 4 September 2026 - 2025 capacity table (Rosatom 29,133; Urenco 17,300; CNNC 13,789; Orano 7,500; world 68,076 thousand SWU/yr), SWU example, energy use, assays.
  • World Nuclear Association, 'World Uranium Mining Production', updated 21 September 2026 - 2024 production by country.
  • World Nuclear Association, 'Conversion and Deconversion' and 'Fuel Fabrication' (updated 4 August 2026).
  • US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, 'What is High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU)?', updated 3 December 2024, and 'Russian Uranium Ban Waiver Guidance'.
  • US Energy Information Administration, 'Megatons to Megawatts program will conclude at the end of 2013', Today in Energy.
  • Orano, press release, 5 January 2026 - $900m DOE funding for Project IKE at Oak Ridge.
  • govinfo, bill summary of H.R. 1042, Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act - waivers terminate by 1 January 2028.

Not regulated financial advice.