Forwards or Backwards

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The Engine Shortage Grounding Aeroplane Orders

Published · 18 min

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Airbus and Boeing hold more than 15,000 orders between them, yet airlines cannot get the aircraft they ordered. At the end of June 2026 Airbus reported a backlog of 9,222 aircraft, and Boeing's commercial backlog was over 6,200. This video shows why the engine, not the airframe, sets the pace.

It explains how a turbofan works, why its turbine blades sit in gas hotter than their own metal melts, and how single-crystal blades, nickel superalloys, ceramic coatings and cooling air keep them alive. It shows how few companies cast and forge those parts, and why GE Aerospace agreed to pay $11.75 billion for one of them.

Then the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan: the gearbox idea, the claimed 16% fuel saving, and the powder metal flaw announced by RTX on 11 September 2023, which left hundreds of A320neos waiting for inspections that grew from 60 days to more than 300. It covers the repair queue, Pratt's fix - the GTF Advantage, EASA-certified in April 2026 and delivered to United Airlines in September 2026 - the CFM LEAP's own supply squeeze, and why airlines keep old jets flying at a cost in fuel, money and emissions.

Every figure is on screen with its source and date.

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Chapters

  1. The planes nobody can deliver
  2. The order book in numbers
  3. How a turbofan works
  4. Blades hotter than the metal can bear
  5. Casting, forging and the few who do it
  6. The geared turbofan bet
  7. The powder metal flaw
  8. The repair queue
  9. CFM LEAP and the wider squeeze
  10. Old jets stay in the air
  11. Forwards or held back?

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Sources and credits

Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)

Primary sources

  • Airbus, 'Airbus reports Half-Year (H1) 2026 results', 29 July 2026 - backlog 9,222 at 30 June 2026; 351 deliveries in the first half (271 A320 Family); around 870 deliveries in 2026; rate 70-75 by the end of 2027, then 75..
  • Boeing, 'Boeing Reports Second Quarter Results', 28 July 2026 - commercial backlog over 6,200 aircraft, a record $597 billion; total backlog a record $715 billion; 171 deliveries; 737 at 47 a month; low-rate production on a second 737 line in July..
  • RTX, 'RTX provides update on Pratt & Whitney GTF fleet', 11 September 2023 - rare condition in powder metal; high-pressure turbine and compressor disks; about 600 to 700 engines removed for shop visits 2023-2026; about $3 billion charge in Q3 2023..
  • AirInsight, 'Material anomaly requires more Geared Turbofan inspections', 18 August 2023 - high-pressure turbine stage 1 disks made between Q4 2015 and Q3 2021.
  • IATA, 'Pratt & Whitney Engine Issues', 25 June 2024 - 637 of 1,334 PW GTF aircraft grounded; inspection times from 60 to over 300 days; replacement lease aircraft scarce.
  • The Air Current, 'Caught between Airbus and airlines, Pratt prioritizes the grounded fleet', 31 March 2026 - Rick Deurloo quotation; more than 2,000 aircraft; 72 operators; 46% of about 4,400 Airbus neo deliveries; no supply deal with Airbus.
  • Leeham News, 'GE Aerospace Moves to Secure Critical Engine Casting Capacity', 9 September 2026 - CPP $11.75 billion, close second half of 2027; airfoil demand up about 30% by 2030; Howmet and ATI; RTX Asheville; Safran forging near Paris.
  • RTX, 'RTX's Pratt & Whitney GTF Advantage engine certified for Airbus A320neo aircraft family', 17 April 2026 - EASA certification; up to double time on wing; 4-8% more take-off thrust; intermixable with today's GTF; production cutover by 2028..
  • RTX, 'RTX's Pratt & Whitney marks delivery of first GTF Advantage-powered aircraft to United Airlines', 24 September 2026 - first GTF Advantage aircraft, an Airbus A321XLR, delivered to United..
  • Leeham News, 'Q2 2026 earnings: GE Aerospace keeps the beat', 16 July 2026 - LEAP deliveries up 41% in the first half; guidance high-teens growth; supply-side constraint; spare parts orders +34%, delinquencies +20%; nine quarters of double-digit supplier output growth.
  • Leeham News, 'GE's MRO expansion, supply chain improvements to reduce engine turnaround time', 2 June 2026 - turnaround cut 25% to 50%; billion-dollar programme; LEAP output +25% in 2025.
  • IBA, 'Aircraft values stay resilient as lease rates evolve', 31 July 2026 - lease extensions; A320-200 lease rate $253,000 to $220,000 a month; PW1100G spare engine availability.
  • Wikipedia, 'Pratt & Whitney PW1000G', 'Geared turbofan', 'Turbofan', 'Turbine blade' and 'CFM International LEAP' - 3:1 gearbox, 16% claim, 2008 flight test, 2016 first delivery; turbofan operation; blade temperatures, single crystals, coatings; LEAP applications.
  • Aerospace Global News, 'Airbus to launch legal claim against Pratt & Whitney over GTF delays', 19 March 2026 - Airbus began a formal process to seek damages over delivery delays; no legal forum yet identified.

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