Global markets: bonds, currencies and oil

Sources and credits

Photo credits (Wikimedia Commons)

• Berlin — Reichstag exterior, 13 July 2026: NutzerAusBerlin, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABerlin_20260713_Reichstag.jpg
• Paris — Hôtel de Ville west façade, 27 June 2026; city background, not the sovereign debt office: Julian Lupyan, Public domain - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AH%C3%B4tel_de_Ville%2C_Paris%2C_France.jpg
• Rome — street photograph, 27 July 2026; city background: Phoe121, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ARome_Streets.jpg
• Crude-oil tanker Advantage Smooth, IMO 9999620, Calandkanaal, Netherlands, 25 May 2026; illustrative tanker, not a UK/Japan shipment: Alfvanbeem, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AAdvantage_Smooth%2C_Crude_Oil_Tanker%2C_IMO_9999620%2C_Calandkanaal_pic1.jpg
• Port of Nagoya, Japan — harbour and docks, 23 February 2026; port background, not evidence of a specific oil shipment: Syced, CC0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3APort_of_Nagoya%2C_February_2026_%2817707%29.jpg

Primary sources

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael Fleming et al., Staff Report 1146, U.S. Treasury Market Functioning from the GFC to the Pandemic, April 2025 - Treasuries benchmark other securities, support collateral and reserve roles, and depend on liquidity.
• Federal Reserve Board, Yield Curve Models and Data, last updated 5 November 2019 - nominal term-structure model decomposes yields into expectations and term-premium components; used only to distinguish long yields from the short policy rate.
• Bank of Japan, Changes in the Monetary Policy Framework, 19 March 2024 - end of negative-rate/YCC framework; overnight guide around 0-0.1%, effective 21 March 2024.
• Bank of Japan, Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations, 18 September 2026 - overnight guide around 1.25%, effective 24 September 2026; a policy rate, not a ten-year JGB yield.
• International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2023, Box 1.4 - Japanese banks and life insurers sold $200 billion of foreign bonds in 2022 as JGB yields and FX hedging costs rose; a historical completed-year total.
• IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026, Chapter 1, Box 1.1 - domestic yield changes can affect overseas allocations; mandates typically adjust gradually; used conditionally, no particular sale asserted.
• European Central Bank, Financial Stability Review, November 2025, Chart 2.2, observations to 18 November 2025 - French OAT and Italian BTP ten-year yields compared against German Bunds; political uncertainty widened the French spread; historical example only.
• ECB, Economic Bulletin Issue 6, September 2026, Financial market developments, Charts 15-16 - review period 11 June-9 September 2026; synchronised global yield increases, euro-area sovereign yields largely followed risk-free rates.
• Bank of England, Who sets exchange rates?, last updated 6 May 2020 - supply and demand determine sterling; higher relative rates can support demand; stronger sterling can lower import costs, other things equal.
• US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, released 9 September 2026 - August 2026 crude average $91/barrel (observation); Brent H2 2026 average forecast about $90/barrel.
• Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, published 17 September 2026 (meeting ending 16 September) - Bank Rate held at 3.75%; August annual CPI inflation 3.1%; Brent $106/barrel at close of business 14 September; UK two-year fixed mortgage rates around 95 basis points above pre-conflict levels.
• Valerie Herzberg, George Kapetanios and Simon Price, Bank of England Working Paper 182, Import prices and exchange rate pass-through: theory and evidence from the United Kingdom, 26 March 2003 - sterling appreciation beginning in 1996 passed slowly and incompletely into import prices; historical evidence.
• Bank of Japan, Market Operations in Fiscal 2016, Financial Markets Department, 14 July 2017 - negative-rate policy introduced January 2016; yield curve control introduced September 2016.
• ECB, Ten years of the euro: Successes and challenges, 6 May 2009; Benoit Coeure, The euro area sovereign debt market: lessons from the crisis, 28 June 2012; European Commission, Public Finances in EMU 2010; checked 5 October 2026 - euro launch 1 January 1999; sovereign crisis events from 2010 through 2012, a historical sequence, not measured bond yields.

Not regulated financial advice.